Clearing the Skies: Building Decision-Making Strategies for Crises at Work
Dual-Process Theory – Part III
The first two parts of this series examined the tragic crash of Air France Flight 447 and its lessons on decision-making. This catastrophic event vividly illustrates the dangers of instinctive reactions in high-pressure scenarios. The pilots’ emotional, reflexive response – guided by System 1 thinking as described in Tversky and Kahneman’s Dual-Process Theory – resulted in a fatal stall and the loss of 228 lives. While System 1 is fast and intuitive, it is prone to errors, particularly when emotions and stress take over. In contrast, System 2, a slower, more analytical process, could have guided the pilots to make deliberate and informed decisions, potentially averting disaster [1] [3] [5]. In Part 2, we explored aviation industry’s structured protocols, developed to address such challenges. Among these, the Unreliable Airspeed Indication (IAS) Procedure stands out as a prime example of deliberate, step-by-step decision-making that mitigates errors and promotes composure and teamwork in high-stakes situations [4]. These protocols are designed to counteract instinctive errors by promoting composure, situational awareness, and teamwork under pressure.
These protocols emphasize the importance of preparation, situational awareness, and clear role distribution, ensuring that instinctive mistakes are avoided, and decisions are made with clarity and precision. What sets this approach apart from existing crisis management models is its foundation in real-world, high-stakes environments like aviation, where failure often has catastrophic consequences. This level of rigor and systematic preparation provides a unique framework that can be adapted to various industries beyond aviation.
Transfer and Adaptation of Aviation Protocols
Aviation procedures, such as the Unreliable IAS procedure, offer more than just solutions for cockpit crises – they provide universally applicable strategies for managing uncertainty and pressure. These protocols are meticulously designed to address high-stakes situations where human error is most likely, making them valuable in fields beyond aviation. Transferring these principles to other industries, such as healthcare, IT, or business, can help teams navigate complex challenges, reduce errors, and improve outcomes So let us try to transform the procedures to prevent rash and painful decision-making in high-pressure scenarios.
Adaptive Decision-Making and Crisis Navigation Procedure
When facing a crisis, a structured approach is essential. Aviation’s principles offer a proven framework that can be adapted to revolutionize how you handle high-stakes decisions. We will call it the Adaptive Decision-Making and Crisis Navigation Procedure. To illustrate its application, imagine yourself as a product manager in the midst of a challenging project:
You’re leading the development of a new customer relationship management (CRM) software. Two weeks before the deadline, your client excitedly asks about the “automated feedback analytics” feature they were told would be included. You are startled, because his feature wasn’t part of the agreed deliverables and isn’t technically feasible within your framework. You discover that a salesperson casually assured the client this feature was “no problem” but never communicated it back to the team. Now you face:
- a client expecting an additional unplanned feature.
- a development team without the resources to deliver it within the given time frame.
- senior management is banking on this project’s success for the company’s reputation.
What do you do? This is the critical moment when acting impulsively can lead to greater problems. Instead, this is exactly where the procedure should come into play, guiding you to pause, assess the situation, and make deliberate, informed decisions. Here’s how to apply the Adaptive Decision-Making and Crisis Navigation Procedure:
1. Recognize the Problem (Gain Situational Awareness)
Stop! Before you act, take your time, assess the situation and gather the facts. Define the issue clearly: The client expects an additional feature, and your resources are limited. Gather all relevant facts. Think of this step as a mental pause button that prevents rash reactions and ensures you see the full scope of the challenge.
Key Guidelines:
- Avoid Complaining or Blaming: Focus your energy on identifying solutions rather than dwelling on mistakes or assigning fault.
- Gather Facts Objectively: Collect only relevant and verifiable information without allowing emotions to influence your observations.
- Stay Calm to Maintain Clarity: Panic clouds judgment and can spread quickly. A composed mindset allows you to evaluate the current environment, conditions, and risks more effectively.
Try This:
Adopt a “Pause and Assess” habit. When a crisis arises, set a timer for five minutes to list the key facts about the situation. During this time, focus solely on the facts – no judgments, no opinions. This brief pause helps reset your perspective, ensures you act based on accurate information, and minimizes emotional reactions.
2. Maintain Control
Stay calm! Stabilize the situation you are in! Focus on clear communication and reinforcing your team’s confidence:
- Maintain What’s Working: Ensure that tasks already running smoothly remain undisturbed. Avoid pulling people away from critical responsibilities with a hasty “all-hands-on-deck” mindset, as this can disrupt areas that are functioning well and essential to the project’s success.
- Understand Crucial Parameters: Familiarize yourself with the project’s most important aspects, including key deliverables and agreed-upon objectives for the current stage. Refer to project documentation to avoid jeopardizing these by making impulsive decisions.
- Communicate Confidence: Engage with your team in a way that conveys composure and stability. Lead by example, creating an atmosphere of control and calmness to prevent unnecessary stress from spreading.
Try This:
Practice the “Control – Reset Technique” during team meetings or crises. When tension rises, take a moment to pause the discussion and ask each team member to briefly state:
- What’s working well in their area.
- One critical task they are focusing on.
This simple exercise not only redirects attention to what’s under control but also reinforces confidence within the team. It helps you identify potential risks while maintaining a sense of stability and focus on priorities. By centering on what’s working, you build a foundation of calm to tackle emerging challenges effectively.
3. Consult Guidelines
Certain processes, like feature design or scope management, are inherently problematic and can lead to recurring challenges in any project. To navigate these effectively, create a “Quick Reference Handbook” (QRH) tailored to your team’s needs. This guide should provide general principles and actionable steps for addressing common patterns, such as handling unplanned feature requests or managing misaligned expectations. By recognizing recurring patterns, you can proactively prepare for these scenarios, ensuring your team knows exactly how to respond when they arise.
Try This: Develop a “Pattern Recognition Matrix” alongside your QRH. For each recurring issue (e.g., last-minute feature requests or scope changes), identify its usual triggers and the best responses. Use this matrix to update your QRH with real-world examples and solutions, making it a living resource that evolves with your projects. Review and refine these patterns regularly to keep your team prepared for both predictable and unexpected challenges.
4. Confirm and Troubleshoot
Once you have identified the errors, act quickly to mitigate them before they escalate. Foster a culture where mistakes can be openly acknowledged without fear of backlash, as this promotes learning and continuous improvement. Keep in mind that high workloads can impair cognitive responses and decision-making, so monitoring and managing workload during troubleshooting is essential. Whenever possible, follow the instructions outlined in your quick reference guide. If no guidance exists, develop a step-by-step response tailored to the situation. Focus on critical tasks, assign clear roles, and establish deadlines.
For example, you might:
- delegate a team member to develop a workaround or temporary solution
- Communicate transparently to manage your customers’ expectations.
- Break the problem into smaller, manageable parts and prioritize solutions.
- Assemble cross-functional teams with members from diverse departments (e.g., development and product management) to address the issue collaboratively
Ready to Take the Next Steps:
Now that you’ve mastered the fundamentals of identifying, maintaining, and troubleshooting during crises, it’s time to dive into the next crucial elements of effective crisis navigation. In the upcoming section, we’ll explore how to harness the power of communication, collaboration, and strategic support to resolve challenges with confidence and clarity. Stay with us to complete the journey toward a fully adaptive decision-making framework!
References
[1] BEA – Bureau d’enquêtes et d’analyses pour la sécurité de l’aviation civil. (2011). Aircraft accident report: On the accident on 1st June 2009 on the Airbus A330-203. Paris. https://aaiu.ie/foreign_reports_fr/final-report-accident-to-airbus-a330-203-registered-f-gzcp-air-france-af-447-rio-de-janeiro-paris-1st-june-2009/
[2] The Beatles. (1965). We can Work it out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M
[3] Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, fast and slow. First paperback edition. New York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
[4] Skybrary. Unreliable Airspeed Indications. Retrieved 2025.01.02. From: https://skybrary.aero/articles/unreliable-airspeed-indications
[5] Skybrary. Handbook (QRH). Retrieved 2025.01.02. From: https://skybrary.aero/articles/quick-reference-handbook-qrh
[5] Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science (New York, N.Y.), 185(4157), 1124–1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124